Global market watch - 18th April 2019

UK CPI didn’t manage to move the market much, as it was released in line with expectations at 1.9% on an annual basis. The Office for National Statistics also reported that house prices in the south-east of England fell for the first time since 2011. Today, we have UK retail sales for release and expect a fall of 0.3%, after March’s gain of 0.4%.

The Eurozone February trade surplus reported a healthy increase of 19.5 billion, compared to January’s euro 17 billion. In addition, following the healthy Chinese data, and the ECB’s Hansson’s comments that there was “no doubt that growth will pick up in H2 2019”, the euro was supported for London trading. Today, we have Eurozone Services PMI for release, along with Swiss trade data. The Swiss franc has fallen over 2% against the euro over the past three weeks.

US trade data showed an improvement rather than deterioration, as the deficit was US dollars 49.4 billion, rather than US dollars 53.5 billion expected. This helped the dollar strengthen a touch, after a day of slipping lower. There are reports that the US and China are now working towards agreeing a deal, which President Trump and Premier Xi can sign in May. The Mueller report on supposed Russian interference in US elections and US retail sales will be released today.
The AUD had a good day as did the CAD, after a surprising push higher in Canadian core inflation. Overnight, Australian employment data was better than expected, as the Australian economy added 25.7k new jobs, better than the 15.2k new jobs expected.

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