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Global Market Watch - 24th November 2017

GBP

GBPUSD ran into profit taking as UK GDP was as expected at +0.4% QoQ, although CBI realised sales came back with a bang with a reading of +25 after last month’s -36. Unfortunately, preliminary business investment for Q3 slipped from 0.5% to 0.2% and UK consumer confidence has slumped to a post Brexit low. Everything combined left sterling unimpressed and trading in recent ranges. Although Irish politics may produce an election next year, this is unlikely to effect the Irish decision whether or not to use their veto on moving Brexit talks to the second stage in December.

Euro

German GDP QoQ was an impressive 0.8%, precisely double the UK’s reading with the Eurozone’s composite PMI reading also a nice beat at 57.5 rather than the 56.0 expected. The PMI’s now point to a possible Q4 GDP of 0.8% for the Eurozone. The ECB meeting minutes were also released and showed some members had been concerned about Eurozone interest rates squeezing higher if an end date was put on to QE. The market was already positive on the Eurozone’s economic data when the chances of a coalition between the SPD and CDU emerged; this helped the Euro gain again. Today we have the release of German IFO business sentiment and expect 116.6 after September’s 116.7

USD

Drifted in directionless holiday trading with President Trump talking of military gains and “big fat tax cuts.”

RoW

The Chinese stock market decided to fall 2% yesterday over concerns that the authorities crackdown on its shadow banking system would slow its economy down.

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